The NFL Week 4 weather forecast is shaping up to be a bit messy, as there are multiple games across the eastern half of the nation that we are monitoring for potential rain impacts. It is important to note that due to the scattered nature of this rain risk (driven by thunderstorms), we will only be providing a forecast summary at this time. If we feel player impacts are imminent, we will update accordingly and provide a live stream on our twitch account tomorrow morning (make sure to follow us to get the alert!)
Forecast Summary:
The big story of the week is the large area of weak low pressure that will be centered over the Midwest/Great Lake states tomorrow. A strong subtropical high over the southeastern US will funnel in above normal temperatures and moisture into the eastern half of the U.S., causing the atmosphere to destabilize. A front, oriented parallel to the Appalachians, will stall over this broad region and increase the chances of thunderstorms.
We are monitoring the following slate of games tomorrow for scattered showers and thunderstorms, which could impact player production at any given time:
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears
Houston Texans @ Buffalo Bills
Pittsburg Steelers @ Green Bay
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New England Patriots
Due to tomorrow's rain event being more scattered in nature, we do not expect complete wash outs for any of these games. However, periods of heavy rain could impact game play over a quarter or two. We usually want to see moderate rain persist throughout the game to have significant player impacts, but there's a chance that we see some limitations regarding the upside for certain players/positions if a storm rolls through during the game.
The biggest risk for tomorrow's slate is rain, where all the above locations have the risk of receiving 0.1+ inches of rain in a short period of time. We will monitor the situation today and tomorrow and provide updates when/where appropriate.
Player Impacts:
We are gaining confidence that weather will impact some of the games outlined above. These impacts are fueled by convection, so we expect impacts to be more intermittent in nature. But as the old adage goes - when it rains, it pours - and we expect periods of heavy rain for the following games.
Lions @ Bears
Steelers @ Packers
Texans @ Bills
DOWNSIDE POSITIONS
QB impacts
We expect the following QBs to be impacted in their matchups today:
Davis Mills
Josh Allen
Justin Fields
Jared Goff
Ben Roethlisberger
Similar weather conditions have resulted in a 24% drop in passing yards, a 23% drop in completions and a whopping 30% reduction in fantasy points in 0.5 point PPR formats.
Experienced more elite QBs have not been historically impacted in games with moderate rain fall rates. For that reason, Aaron Rodgers, Josh Allen, and Tom Brady can be played with confidence this week
WR Impacts
With QBs struggling in heavy weather games, it should be no surprise that WRs are expected to struggle as well. With shorter completions, receiving yards are reduced 15-20% with a reduction in 0.5 PPR leagues ranging from 20-25%. As a result, we are concerned for the following WRs:
Brandin Cooks
Stefon Diggs
Allen Robinson
Darnell Mooney
UPSIDE POSITIONS
RB impacts
Elite running options have the opposite effect in games with significant rainfall. Touchdown potential increases by 7%, while rushing yards increase by 19%. Receiving yards do see a decline by about 17%, however. We are HIGH on the following RBs in their matchups this week:
David Montgomery
Zack Moss
D'Andre Swift
TE impacts
A good TE provides a good safety valve in rainy conditions for QBs. We expect the following TE to see an increase in volume this week:
T.J Hockenson
Robert Tonyan
Pat Freiermuth