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Week 14: Precipitation Across the Northeast

Updated: Dec 11, 2022

A weak area of low pressure will track across the Great Lakes states this weekend and bring rain and a wintery mix to portions of the Northeast on Sunday. As a result, we are currently monitoring a few games for NFL Week 14:

  1. Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants

  2. New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills

  3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ San Francisco 49ers

Forecast Summary:

A broad area of low pressure will move across the Great Lakes into New York on Sunday. This weak low pressure system will bring light precipitation to areas across the Northeast. We are expecting periods of rain and snow for the New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills game, but precipitation will be light and more episodic in nature. Winds 15-20 mph are also possible.

The Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants game will see an increased likelihood of precipitation as the game progresses. Rain may hold off until the second half, but rain rates for this game can become elevated, potentially impacting play for the second half. Winds in the 5-10 mph range are not forecasted to be impactful at this time.

Game Impacts: Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants (1:05 pm ET)

DK Sports Book O/U: 45 pts with Eagles favored by 7pts

Rating: Elevated

This game is a boarder line "Elevated" event. Rain is forecasted to move into the area by the second half. Rain rates could become elevated with 0.1 inches of rain expected. Winds are not forecasted to be impactful. In similar weather games, we do not see a significant impact to total score, but there does seem to be a slightly higher probability of a lower scoring game (see graph below):

The last time the Eagles played in rain, albeit a more significant rain event, Jalen Hurts went 16/25 with 204 yards and 0 TD / 1INT. In comparison, Miles Sanders ran the ball 27 times for 134 yards and 2 TD. Jalen Hurts added 16 rushes for 38 yards and a TD. This seems to align with averages in similar weather games (see graphs below). This could limit upside potential for receiving options like DeVonta Smith and AJ Brown.

Rushing yards in similar weather games (green) vs. dome games (black):

Passing yards distributions in weather games (green) vs. dome games (gray):

If rain does become an issue, expect the Eagles to lean on the run, especially vs. the Giants porous rushing-D who rank bottom 5 in their last 3 matchups giving up 166 yards on average to opposing RBs.

Historically, Jones does not seem to be overly impacted by rain, but against a top ranked Eagles passing defense giving up only 178 yards through the air on average, rain will not help his chances vs. this stingy passing defense. This also puts the big play potential of Darius Slayton in question, potentially limiting his upside.

Saquon Barkley is currently listed as questionable, but if he does play, it won’t be easy against this Eagles front who have only allowed 97 yards on average over their last 3 games. Additionally, if the Eagles get out to an early lead, the Giants may not have an opportunity to establish their run game, especially if they are unable to sustain drives. This may limit Barley’s opportunities, giving him a lower floor than normal.

Game Impacts: Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets (1:05 pm ET)

DK Sports Book O/U: 43 pts with Bills favored by 10pts

Rating: Monitoring

Light rain and snow may be intermittent throughout this game, with sustained winds 15-20 mph possible with temperatures in the mid to upper 30s.

It is worth noting that in our analysis, Josh Allen is more impacted by precipitation than wind historically. We are expecting some light precipitation throughout the course of the game, which may limit Allen’s upside. For reference, Allen averages 70 yards less in precipitation games (170 yds) vs. dry games (240 yds). For all QBs in similar weather conditions, we see an almost 35 yard decrease in passing yards(see graph below). We already know Mike White can play in rainy games as he picked apart the Bears two weeks ago in very wet conditions, albeit against a more porous Chicago passing defense. It is important to keep in mind that both teams have a better than average passing defense, even if the Bills have been a bit more susceptible through the air the last few weeks.

We also see a noteworthy relationship showing an increase in rushing attempts and yards in similar weather games (see graph below). The problem is, it is unclear who the workhorse backs will be (if any) on either side of the ball. Whoever you choose to play, just note that there may be an increase in opportunities/yards for these RBs.

Although sporadic rain/snow and wind are possible in this game, we don’t expect conditions to be overly impactful in an already very low O/U divisional game. We lean toward lower passing yards and more rushing attempts, but we think this game will be a grind with a slower pace of play than we would normally expect from these teams regardless of weather.

Game Impacts: Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ San Francisco 49ers (4:25 pm ET)

DK Sports Book O/U: 37 pts with Bucs favored by 3.5 pts

Rating: Monitoring

Periods of rain are possible throughout the game in San Francisco. We don't anticipate significant impacts at this time. Tom Brady has proven to perform in adverse weather conditions, albeit this week vs. a 49ers defense ranking #1 in total yards given up to opposing offenses. Brock Purdy will get the start with the 49ers. Historically, lower tiered QBs can show a propensity to struggle more in rainy conditions. However, with an already low O/U of 37 points, we weren't expecting a strong offensive performance on either side of the ball anyway.

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