Hurricane Ian tore through Florida and then recurved over the Carolina Coast this past week leaving a path of destruction in its wake. The remnants of this tropical system will push north over the weekend, and bring with it rain and wind risk for games with stadium locations along the east coast including:
1) Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens (Elevated)
2) Jacksonville Jaguars @ Philadelphia Eagles (Elevated)
3) Chicago Bears @ New York Giants (Monitoring)
The game we are most concerned about this week is between the Bill and Ravens @ 1pm on Sunday.
Forecast Summary:
The weather conditions forecasted for the games highlighted above are all impacted by the same system as the post-tropical remnants of Ian will bring elevated wind and rain to portions of the Mid- Atlantic and Northeastern regions on Sunday. Rain could be moderate to heavy at times and although sustained winds look marginal at 15-20mph, models are suggesting gusts of 25-30 mph are possible.The timing on the rain risk is tough to pinpoint at this time due to the isolated nature of the rain event, but Baltimore is forecasted to receive extended periods of rain throughout the game, while rain over Philly and New York look more episodic.
Game Impacts:
Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens
DK O/U: 50.5
Rating: Elevated
Weather: moderate to heavy rain throughout the game, winds 15 mph / gusts 25-30 mph
We are more confident in impacts for this game than the other two as rain amounts in the quarter inch range are possible. With that being said, you also have two massive offensive Juggernauts led by Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. Typically, weather has less impact on the premier players as they seem to find ways to score points. However, we are going to dig into the numbers a bit more on both these QBs to get a sense of how they have performed historically in similar weather conditions. Since rain is the primary concern for this game, we will focus on precipitation games.
The evidence above suggests that both QB’s post similar differentials in games with precipitation which provides confidence that the chance of a down performance for either QB is possible based on historical numbers.
With that being said, the big difference between the potential performances of Allen and Jackson is the defenses they are facing. Baltimore is giving up 353 yards per game through the air and 2.3 passing touchdowns on average over the first 3 weeks. Buffalo on the other hand has been dominant, only giving up 156 yards and 0.7 touchdowns passing on average so far this year.
Based on these results, we tend to think that Lamar has a higher risk of having a tough outing, and may rely more on his legs if conditions deteriorate. As far as the passing options for Baltimore, we do see a slight downtick in total yards for Mark Andrews in rainy games, but targets go up. In PPR leagues he is safe, but in standard and DFS leagues, Andrews ceiling may be capped based on Jackson’s performance in wet conditions. Rashod Bateman is tougher, as you are counting on a big play to make him fantasy relevant, and in potentially messy conditions and against a top 5 passing defense, those opportunities will be limited.
Conversely, we still think Josh Allen is a good play this week and should have an advantage against a susceptible Ravens passing defense. The rain may limit upside a bit, especially if Allen misses on some big plays to stretch the field. As a result, his usually high upside may be a bit capped this week. You are playing Stephon Diggs without question as he will get volume. Gabriel Davis is a bit riskier as a field stretcher, but if you have him, you play him against this defense. This whole passing offense gets the green light in our book - just limit your expectations.
We also think there is opportunity in the rushing game for Buffalo. We typically see almost 3 more carries on average in similar rainy condition games (see chart below). Devin Singletary O/U on rushing attempts is at 9.5 on DraftKings. We know the Bills don’t rely on their rushing attack, but if they do get up early, and it starts to rain, there is a good chance the Buffalo RBs get more carries.
The O/U total rushing yards for Devin Singletary are also low at 34.5 and we think Singletary can surpass this line against a middle of the pack rushing D in Baltimore.
If you want to roll the dice with the RB for the Ravens J.K Dobbins in this one, go for it, but we are not excited in an already tough matchup against a stout Bills rushing defense.
Downside plays: Lamar Jackson, Rashod Bateman
Upside plays: Devin Singletary, Stephon Diggs
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Philadelphia Eagles
DK O/U: 45
Rating: Elevated
Weather: period of light to moderate rain, winds 15-20 mph / gusts 25-30 mph
The Jaguars and Eagles are another two teams off to a strong offensive start. We expect weather to deteriorate here sooner than expected as periods of impactful rain are forecasted, and pockets of moderate precipitation are likely throughout the game. Winds will be sustained in the 15mph range, but gusts 25-30+ mph are possible. As a result, this game is now labeled as "Elevated".
We are not as concerned about the big name players on the Philly side with Jalen Hurts, AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert proven commodities. However, against a proven tough Eagles defense in the rain, we are more concerned with Trevor Lawerence, Christian Kirk and Zay Jones. James Robinson is safe start due to his passing utilizations and rushing volume.
Chicago Bears @ New York Giants
DK O/U:39.5
Rating: Monitoring
Weather: period of light to moderate rain, winds 15-20 mph / gusts 25-30 mph
The rain risk for this game is questionable, but winds will be elevated with gusts 25-30+ possible. Overall, we don’t think rain and wind will be persistent or strong enough to be overly impactful in this one. Regardless, we are hopeful in assuming you aren’t in a position to start Justin Fields and Daniel Jones or any of their passing options. To put things in perspective, Justin Fields averages only 161 yards per game, in GOOD conditions, so adding the potential of weather (even for a quarter or two) to this equation is kind of like beating an already dead horse. Surprisingly, our numbers show that Jones is not impacted by weather as much, but we didn’t have confidence in him before this forecast as Chicago has only allowed 200 passing yards per game through the first 3 games. In summary, leave the QBs and WRs on your bench; regardless of if there is weather or not
Instead, we will focus on the rushing attack led by Saquon Barkley of the Giants and Khalil Herbert of the Bears. Currently, the Giants rank 25th in rushing yards given up at 138 yards per game on average. Believe it or not, the Bears are even worse, ranking 30th with 157 yards per game. DraftKings has the O/U line on Barkley for rushing yards set at 80.5 and Herbert at 75.5. Based on our analysis, we think there is a good chance both players eclipse these totals as the offenses need to establish the run to have any chance in the passing game. And if there is rain, and wind gusts that become more consistent, we expect both teams to favor a slow pace of play and heavily rely on their RBs.
Downside plays: Daniel Jones, Justin Fields, all receiving options
Upside plays: Saquon Barkley, Khalil Herbert