A Storms a Brewin’
Things are going to get a bit more interesting this Sunday as a sprawling area of low-pressure is expected to produce some rain and wind for three matchups this week:
Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans
Detroit Lions @ Cleveland Browns
Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills
Rain accumulations could approach “heavy” designation in a few of these games, but winds only look to be only a limited factor. Read below for our Forecast Summary and Player Impacts
Forecast Summary
Cyclogenesis north of the Great Lakes will spin up a broad area of low pressure, spreading clouds and wet weather through the southeastern US. A trailing front will bring a period of moderate rain and usher in some cooler temperatures across the eastern and southern states. The Tennessee Titans game is currently forecasted to receive the highest rain totals during game time, with the National Weather Service predicting over 0.2 inches of rainfall. Most of this rain is predicted to fall during the second half of the game. We'll have to keep an eye out for any lightning activity during the Titans game, as there is a small risk the NFL delays this game due to weather as the front passes through, which would remove the weather-impact risk. Cleveland is forecasted to have winds 10 - 15 mph with intermittent, but lighter precipitation in the range of 0.05 to 0.1 inches . Buffalo is a borderline call at this point, but rain is forecasted to enter the area at some point in the second half which could pick up to make things interesting in a game that the Bills are projected to win by 7.
Player Impacts
Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans
Ryan Tannehill (DK $6700): We are shying away from deploying Tannehill in this matchup. Although on paper this matchup looks juicy for Titans starting QB, Tannehill has struggled in rain games, posting a 78 QBR with 182 YPG and 6TD/5 INTS in 4 games in the rain. Although this may appear to be a get-right game for the veteran QB against a bottom half Houston defense, the second half moderate rain event (if no weather delay takes place) will limit most of the upside of the favorable matchup.
D’Onta Foreman (DK $4900): Yes, Yes, and Yes. Coming off a 13 touch - 78 yard performance last week, we expect Foreman to continue his trend of heavy utilization against the struggling Texans. We may have actually found our new lead back in Tennessee with McNichols out and Peterson taking on a more change of pace role with some potential goal-line looks. With rain forecasted to become an issue in the second half, don’t be surprised to get a safe floor of volume with Foreman taking over the reins.
A.J Brown (DK $7700): If rain does become an issue, A.J. Brown and company could feel the impacts. We typically see almost a 25% drop-off in WR production in moderate to heavy rain games, and A.J. Brown is not an exception, catching only 38% targets and 24 YPG in games with rain. We typically see WRs struggle to "boom" in moderate rain events, which limits the ceiling outlook of Brown. With his yards per reception down to sub-10 in rain games, A.J. still may get the targets, but what he is able to do with them may be limited.
Marcus Johnson (DK $3500): See above argument for A.J. Brown. Johnson is still an outside receiver taking over for Jones, but could see a more difficult CB matchup, with passes closer to the LOS. But for a low $3500, in a pinch, you can throw him in your lineup.
Brandin Cooks (DK $6000): Tyrod Taylor will be under center for Houston in this one. We do expect him to go to his trusted receiver in Cooks, but how successful Cooks will be with these opportunities in the rain is another question. We are not confident with Cooks in this one going against a defense with a lot of momentum, in the rain, especially in DFS formats. If you are in season longs, the volume should be there for Cooks which should keep his floor somewhat stable. But if Cooks struggles to produce in the first half, the rain risks in the second half could really dampen his final line.
Houston RBs: Stay away. We expect these RBs to get more volume, but who will lead the team in touches is anyone's guess. David Johnson (DK $4400) looks to get first crack at it, but against a team that is ranked 6th in giving up fantasy points to RB’s, we would avoid this matchup if possible.
Detroit Lions @ Cleveland Browns
Baker Mayfield (DK $5400): Even without weather, we would be avoiding the hobbled Mayfield against the Lions. Baker has posted similar numbers to Tannehill with only a 79 QBR, 202 YPG and 4TDs/4INTs in 4 games with precipitation. Mayfield has a low floor and ceiling against the deceptively stingy Lions defense that actually played well against Rudolph last week in the rain.
Nick Chubb (DK $7800): Two words - All Day; or you can go with - Smash Play. Either way (now I’m just rhyming) Chubb is a must start in your lineup. We expect Chubb to receive similar volume as Najee Harris received last week to the tune of 20+ touches. With Chubb ability to break plays wide open and his versatility in the passing game, we expect him to be the focal point of the offense on Sunday. Don’t be surprised if D. Johnson siphons some carries, but Chubb will be the lead guy in the backfield - play him with confidence.
DeAndre Swift (DK $7000): Swift looks to be a good play this week. In similar conditions last week he posted 33 attempts for over 130 yards against the Steelers. Typically you should be afraid of the Cleveland rushing defense, but they have given up 128 YPG to opposing RBs in their last 3 matchups. Swift will without a doubt provide a strong floor with upside in this run-first offense, especially with the back-up Lions QB Time Boyle now under center in messy conditions. One note: Jamaal Williams looks to return from injury this week so we probably won't see Swift get another 30+ touches. But Swift should still return on value.
Any receiving options: put this one to rest for this week. We are not excited about any pass catching options on either side of the ball in this one.
Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills
No significant impacts expected at this time.