Week 11: Buffalo Snow-Bowl Denied; Windy in the Northeast
NFL Week 11 is upon us and the big story line this week has been the city of Buffalo. Buffalo has just experienced a historic lake-effect snow event, where 4+ feet of snow has left the city crippled. There was a tremendous amount of faulty information spread about this storm, such that there would be feet of snow on the field when the Bills host the Browns this Sunday. The favorite meme we came across was the comparison of the amount of snow forecast to fall and the height of Bills RB Devin Singletary and Browns RB Nick Chubb.
What was not communicated in the mass hysteria of this game was that little to no additional snowfall would take place during the Browns/Bills game. In the end, the city was so crippled that the game was rescheduled to Detroit and the 'snow-bowl' of 2022 did not come to fruition... even though in reality this was never going to be a snow game. All Buffalo players have made it safely to Detroit this evening, meaning this game will 100% be played.
Now that the hype is done with the Buffalo game, are there any more 'weather' games to be concerned about this week? According to our weather table, we do have one "Extreme" label posted for the Detroit Lions @ New York Giants game, with two "Elevated" labels: The Panthers @ Ravens and Jets @ Patriots.
Forecast: A low pressure system pushing across eastern Canada is expected to drive 15-25mph sustained westerly winds with gusts in the 30-40mph range across much of the Northeast tomorrow. This strong westerly wind generates some weather-impact risk on all Sunday games in along the coastal Northeast.
The Lions @ Giants game is predicted to see the strongest winds of the coastal Northeast games on Sunday. The over-under line for this game is set at 44.5-45pt, which may be too high given the high nature of the wind as well as direction. This will be a cross-wind event for the game, meaning winds will be blowing more from side-line to side-line, rather from end zone to end zone (parallel). This game has clear downside risk for total points scored, as well as production from passing game. We are downgrading the Quarterback and outside WRs in this game, and we recommend staying away from the kickers on both sides if playing fantasy football. Giants WR Darius Slayton has been very well as of late, but wind impacts could hamper his upside this week. We typically see coaches tend to lean on the running game during windy games. This suggests added value for NYG RB Saquon Barkely and DET RBs Jamaal Williams/Deandre Swift. Saquon is the chalk play in DFS.
Panthers @ Ravens and Jets @ Patriots: Winds are expected to be elevated but slightly less intense than what is forecast at MetLife Stadium, shifting our risk criteria to "Elevated" for these games. This being said, there is non-zero risk for winds to impact these games. Expect low productivity from QBs/WRs in the Jets-Patriots game, with increased usage from the RBs. The Jets or Patriots are good defenses to target in DFS and redraft leagues this week. QB Lamar Jackson is still a solid play this week, even in the windy conditions, thanks to his involvement in the running game. We'd recommend staying away from all Panthers in this game.