NFL Week 12: Blustery in Green Bay
With high pressure building into the western half of the US, we (weirdly) have very little in the way of weather risks this week. There will be a trough over the Great Lakes region that could spin up some scattered snow showers specifically to the lake Erie and Ontario regions, but nothing in the vicinity of a game stadium location to make this impactful. The only game worth noting is the LA Rams at Green Bay Packers game in which we expect on the cooler side in the upper 20s/low 30s with winds in the 10-15 mph range that could gust up to 20mph.
Soooooo....mistakes happen, right? Please view our updated fantasy impact analysis using the CORRECTED matchup of the Rams @ Packers
Fantasy Impacts - Los Angeles Rams @ Green Bay Packers
We typically see a 5-10% drop in QB production in cooler weather games. With the Rams traveling to a much different climate than they are used to in LA, and going against a top-10 Packers passing defense of late, we don't think it is crazy to limit expectations for Matthew Stafford. We also expect winds to be elevated for the first half, which could hinder this passing attack from gaining momentum to start.
On the flip side, Aaron Rodgers thrives in this climate. We have no concerns about his ability to perform in colder conditions, even if there might be some wind.
We see similar downgrades for WR in the 5-10% range. Are you considering playing Odell Beckham Jr? This could be a tough week for OBJ to get going with the cold weather with some windy conditions in the first half. That being said, don't get too cute... still play Cooper Kupp.
You are not changing expectations for Green Bay receiving options - play as you would.
There is a marked difference in RB opportunity and efficiency in cold weather games - both increasing in the +10% range. The question is - will Aaron Jones or AJ Dillon get the start? If Jones is active, he's a must play.
With Darell Henderson Jr's recent struggles, the cold weather may boost Henderson's usage compared to the past two games. While there's certainly some risk here, Henderson should still end up in RB2 territory.
In summary, play all Packers as you would. However, with the warm weather Los Angeles Rams traveling to the frozen tundra of Green Bay, don't be surprised if the offense struggles to get things going thus limiting upside.